PURPOSE:

This report responds to the City Council�s direction of June 27, 2006 to obtain outside professional assistance to review and analyze the proposed update to the City�s General Plan and the related development regulation.  This report recommends that the Council direct staff to hire the appropriate consultants and allocate the necessary funding.

DISCUSSION:

At the City Council meeting of June 27, 2006, staff provided a report to the City Council regarding the status of the update to the Land Use and Mobility Elements of the City�s General Plan, and the new traffic-related development regulation being proposed as part of the update.  The Council directed staff to seek outside consultants to evaluate the proposed regulation and make recommendations regarding its viability and appropriateness as a development control.  Specifically, the Council directed staff to hire a consultant to conduct an economic analysis to determine the potential impacts on the City�s economy; to contract with a land use expert to review and analyze the feasibility of the regulation as a development standard; and to hire a consultant with expertise in traffic engineering to review the regulation, the City�s traffic model, and the assumptions that were used in the model to create the proposed regulation.

This report presents summaries of the proposed scopes of work for the economic and traffic consultants.  Staff has not yet identified an appropriate land use consultant, but is continuing to study various options.  Staff believes that a land use consultant would be appropriate to bring in as the economic and traffic analyses are concluding so as to have the results of those analyses available as part of the land use review.  The economic and traffic analyses are critical, and may provide important insight into the feasibility of the proposed development standard.  Staff believes it would therefore be appropriate to complete a substantial portion of that analysis before moving forward with a land use consultant.  Staff will return at a future meeting with a proposed scope of work for a land use consultant to be named at that time.

Pending Council direction on the proposed scopes of work for the economic and traffic consultants discussed below, staff will proceed with preparing a Professional Services Agreement (PSA) for each consultant and will return to the Council to formally request a budget amendment for the needed funds.  As of the publication deadline of this report, staff had not yet received fee estimates or schedules from either the economic or traffic consultants and was continuing to work with the consultants to obtain that information.  Staff will provide the cost and time estimates to the Council at the August 15 meeting.

Economic Analysis

Staff contacted Keyser Marston Associates (KMA), an economic consulting firm that has previously completed economic analyses for the Community Development Department and is very familiar with economic and market conditions in the City of Burbank and Southern California.  To analyze the potential economic impacts of the proposed General Plan and related development regulation, KMA will analyze the economic feasibility of about 10 projects that are representative of the type of development that is characteristic of Burbank, and compare those with the comparable development scenarios that would be allowed under the proposed standard.  The representative projects will be of various sizes and types on different parcels throughout the City so as to provide the most complete and balanced analysis possible.  Some of the projects will be projects that have been recently approved or constructed, or that are currently going through the planning process.  The projects will also include examples that are representative of development that may come through the planning process in the future, based upon input received from the Chamber of Commerce and the City�s own development forecasts.

For each project, KMA will look at the economic feasibility of the project itself, and calculate the land value that would be supported by the project.  KMA will then conduct the same analysis for the comparable �maximum� project that could be built within the limitations of the proposed development regulation.  In situations where a comparable project would not be feasible under the proposed regulation, KMA will study an alternative type of project that would be feasible on the property.  The difference in the supportable land value between the different project scenarios for each parcel studied would be reflective of the potential economic impacts of the proposed regulation.  For those properties with older structures in need of rehabilitation or replacement, KMA will provide analysis to show whether the proposed development regulation would make it infeasible for a property to recycle given the value of the land and existing improvements.  For those projects that are deemed infeasible under the proposed development regulation, KMA will provide information about the size and type of project that would be feasible, given supportable land values.  These �threshold� project scenarios may provide valuable information to guide possible adjustments to the proposed development model and regulation.

Through this analysis, KMA will be able to draw conclusions about the potential impacts of the proposed regulation on the scale of the individual project, and show how those impacts translate into economic impacts on the community.  Based on the collective project analysis, KMA will provide information about the job creation and tax revenues that may result from the projects, and compare that with what would potentially be created by the comparable projects subject to the proposed development regulation.  This will provide additional information about the potential economic impacts of the regulation.  In addition to the jobs and tax analysis, KMA and staff discussed the feasibility of analyzing the macro-scale economic impacts of the proposed standard and the potential long-term effects on the City�s economy.  KMA and staff are both of the opinion that such an analysis would not be practical or meaningful.  There are numerous factors other than development controls that dictate the economic condition of a community, and staff believes that an attempt at such analysis would be highly speculative and would not produce meaningful results.  Staff believes that the analysis of supportable land values, jobs, and taxes will provide adequate information about the potential economic impacts of the proposed development regulation.

Staff recommends that the Council direct staff to proceed with asking KMA to perform the economic impact analysis of various representative projects as described above.  Staff will provide cost and time estimates to complete this analysis at the meeting on August 15.

Analysis of Proposed Development Regulation and Traffic Model

Staff contacted Kaku Associates, a traffic engineering firm that has worked with Burbank on various projects.  Although Kaku has worked with Burbank previously, the firm was not involved in any way in the creation of the City�s traffic model or in the development of the proposed development standard.  Staff therefore believes that Kaku would provide a fresh perspective and would be able to critically evaluate the proposed standard and the traffic model from an outsider�s point of view.  Staff provided Kaku with a requested scope of work to review the proposed regulation and the traffic model upon which it is based, including the following tasks:

• Review and evaluate the general assumptions, procedures, and methods used in the Burbank Transportation Model to produce traffic forecasts.  Compare Burbank�s model data and methodologies to the models used in other jurisdictions.  Based on the analysis and comparisons, determine if the Burbank Transportation Model meets general industry standards.

• Review and evaluate the general assumptions, procedures, and methods used to develop the development regulation.  Gather information on similar traffic-based development control measures used in other jurisdictions, and compare the proposed methodology to the methods used to develop the other traffic-related development control tools.   Evaluate the effectiveness and flexibility of the proposed standard as compared with similar controls used elsewhere and identify the potential advantages and disadvantages of the proposed standard.  Based on this evaluation, propose refinements to the methodology or alternative development controls that would substantially accomplish the goals behind the regulation.

• Review the assumptions, procedures, background data, and bibliography compiled by staff in support of the traffic generation rates and reductions that would be part of the proposed regulation.  Conduct additional research as needed and refine the traffic generation rates and reduction procedures and factors.  Review, evaluate, and suggest modifications to the methods developed by staff to estimate variations in traffic reduction potential by location.

• Prepare the following documents: 1) a technical memorandum summarizing the proposed methodology, including references and bibliography; 2) a memorandum summarizing the review of the proposed procedures and the Burbank Transportation Model, and 3) a table of traffic generation rates by land use that could be utilized for the proposed standard if adopted.

As of the publication deadline for this report, Kaku was continuing its review of the proposed scope of work.  On August 15, staff will provide information about any input from Kaku regarding the scope of work, and the cost and time estimates to complete the analysis.

FISCAL IMPACT:

As noted above, the cost estimates for the economic and traffic analysis were not yet available as of the publication of this report.  Staff will provide information on the estimated cost for these services during the August 15 staff presentation.

CONCLUSION:

KMA and Kaku Associates are both respected firms that are experts in their fields.  The City�s previous experience with both firms is that they are extremely knowledgeable and produce high quality work.  Both firms are familiar with the City of Burbank and have worked with the City previously.  Staff believes that both firms would be able to provide the expertise and the perspective that is necessary for a critical review and evaluation of the proposed development regulation and the traffic model upon which it is based, and provide staff and the City Council with valuable input about the proposal and possible alternative approaches.

RECOMMENDATION:

Staff recommends that the City Council provide any input regarding the proposed scopes of work discussed in this report and direct staff to proceed with preparing PSAs for Keyser Marston Associates and Kaku Associates to analyze and review the proposed regulation.  Staff will return to the Council as soon as possible with a formal budget amendment request to cover the costs of the contracts once the exact amounts have been finalized.  Staff will also return with a proposed scope of work and consultant to conduct the land use analysis portion of the review, once the economic and traffic analyses have begun.

go to the top