Purpose           

 

The Mobility (Transportation) and Land Use Elements of the City�s General Plan are being updated concurrently, with scheduled completions in March 2005.  This report presents the results of the traffic forecasts done for 2025 horizon year of the elements, and discusses the land use assumptions and methodologies that underlie those forecasts of future conditions.  Staff requests that the Council discuss the transportation and land use information contained in this report, and provide direction to staff concerning the proposed incorporation of the recommendations into the joint Mobility/Land Use environmental impact report and the separate elements.  This report also provides an update of the Empire Interchange project, and requests Council direction on the previously discussed design modification. 

 

Background

 

Staff is currently working with consultants to finalize a Notice of Preparation (NOP) for distribution to responsible agencies and the public notifying them of the City�s intention to prepare a joint environmental impact report on proposed updates to the existing Mobility (currently �Circulation�) and Land Use Elements.  The NOP provides a general overview of the proposed changes to the existing elements and the areas of potential impact that the EIR will study.  The distribution of the NOP will begin a period during which additional areas of study can be suggested. 

 

One principal area that the EIR will analyze is the potential impact to future traffic conditions that will be expected to result from the proposed changes to the policies incorporated into the elements.  For example, a proposal to change a land use classification city-wide would need to be analyzed to determine what impact that it would have on future traffic conditions.  If the traffic impact was found to be significant, either the impact would need to be reduced (by adopting a less-intensive land use change) or mitigated through a transportation improvement plan.  

 

California law requires the Land Use and Circulation elements of the General Plan to be closely coordinated and reciprocally related.  The Circulation Element should identify how the local jurisdiction intends to accommodate the traffic that could potentially be generated by the development capacity identified in the Land Use Element.  Conversely, the amount of potential development identified in the Land Use Element should be consistent with the potential capacity of the local circulation system, as identified in the Circulation Element.  The Land Use Element must contain quantifiable standards for building intensity by land use category, often expressed as �floor-area-ratio (FAR).�  An FAR is the relationship between the size of the development site and the total floor space of the occupiable building constructed on it.                    

 

The shortcoming with using the FAR as a basis for determining the capacity of the Land Use Element for traffic planning purposes is that the ratio has no direct correlation to the amount of traffic that could be generated.  For example, a 25,000 sq. ft. office building and a 25,000 sq. ft. retail building built on separate 25,000 ft. sites within the same commercial land use category would both have an FAR of 1.  However, the office would be expected to generate 36 trips in the PM peak hour, while the retail use would generate approximately 65 vehicle trips during that same period.  The traffic impacts of the Land Use plan at �build-out� can only be roughly approximated using the FAR standard alone to regulate building intensity.   

 

New Intensity Standard

 

In order to more accurately predict the amount of traffic that could be generated by the proposed Land Use Plan, and to better control traffic impacts of new developments, staff recommends that a �trip-based intensity measurement standard (TIMS)� be incorporated as a policy into the Land Use Element.  The TIMS methodology regulates the intensity of individual development projects on the basis of its trip-generating characteristics.  Specifically, the size of a development is controlled by the amount of traffic that the building use will generate during the peak traffic period.  Within each land use category, new developments would be permitted to generate a specific number of peak-hour trips per 1,000 square feet of site area.  The developer has the choice, within the constraints of the applicable zoning regulations, to construct any combination of building size and use that does not exceed the trip-generation limit.    

 

For example, using the prior office-retail example, the developer of a 50,000 square foot site within a general commercial zone may be permitted to generate a maximum number of peak hour vehicle trips (50 times the permitted 1,000 sq. ft. rate), say 75.  Given the trip-generation characteristics of the two uses, the developer could build a 50,805 sq. ft all-office building, or a 29,227 sq. ft. all-retail building on the site.  Other permitted uses could be included as long as the total traffic generation does not exceed the cap. 

 

On a larger scale, the trips/1000 sq. ft. factor that would be specific to each of the separate land use categories is derived by forecasting the 2025 traffic conditions that would result from existing and entitled (but yet un-built) development, adding forecasted regional growth, and determining what amount of additional development the city�s transportation system can support.  Determining the amount of additional development is an iterative process of distributing new square footage geographically throughout the city and using the City Traffic Demand Model to forecast the future traffic conditions that would result. 

 

The TIMS development standard would be only one of the various zoning standards that would limit the amount of development that could occur on a site.  Existing development standards such as building height limitations, on-site parking requirements, building set-back standards, and other standards that limit the size and massing of buildings would continue to be applied.  Additionally, staff recommends that an FAR limitation be implemented, such as that which is currently in effect in the Media District, to ensure that residentially-adjacent developments are compatible.  Both the TIMS and FAR limitations would be applied to developments, with the most restrictive controlling.  Development applications that exceed the TIMS limit for the subject property would minimally require the preparation of a traffic study to demonstrate that the project traffic would not have a significant impact, and a discretionary approval. 

 

The Land Use Subcommittee discussed the trip-based methodology for regulating land development, and concurred with staff�s recommendation that it should be considered for adoption into the Land Use Element. 

 

Year 2025 Traffic Forecasts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Multiple 2025 modeling scenarios have been done to provide an operational framework for deciding what development intensities (TIMS) should be assigned to the various land use categories, given the constraints of the local transportation system.  Three scenarios are summarized in the Table 1.  The Scenario A �Existing Plus Entitlements� forecast assumes no new commercial or industrial development beyond that which is already built or entitled, with an additional 13,500 multi-family residential units that could theoretically be developed at full build-out of the proposed Land Use Plan.  Scenario B is a �Moderate Growth� forecast that assumes an additional 6 million sq. ft. of commercial and industrial growth, along with the same residential growth.  Scenario C assumes 10.5 million additional sq. ft. of commercial and industrial growth beyond Scenario A, with the same residential growth.  The modeling of the latter two scenarios assumes that the TIMS methodology is in effect to regulate the amount and distribution of commercial and industrial development to ensure that it is consistent with the forecasts.   

 

As the table notes, each of the scenarios include the assumption that the Airport terminal remains at the current location, and that Airport passenger growth is capped at 7.2 million air passengers (MAP) annually.  Use of the B-6 site is as noted in the scenario conditions. 

 

In the 2025 baseline conditions for each scenario, the following regional-scale improvements within Burbank are assumed to have been completed:  Empire Interchange and Buena Vista Grade Separation, I-5 High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) Lanes, and the SR-134 Ramps at Hollywood Way.  Major local roadway improvements assumed to have been completed include:  Five Points bridge widening, the Olive-Alameda intersection (dual left turns on Alameda), Alameda and Olive widenings west of the Alameda-Olive intersection, city-wide signal synchronization, and many other improvements that have been identified and programmed to mitigate the future impacts of previously-entitled development.  Additionally, the 2025 baseline includes all of the regional growth forecasts and programmed transportation improvements that are anticipated to occur within the SCAG region during the forecast period.   

 

Regional travel patterns forecasted by the SCAG regional framework model show that the I-5 Freeway will continue to become increasingly congested, even with the completion of the planned HOV lanes.  As traffic conditions worsen on the regional routes, commuters will increasingly choose alternative surface streets to bypass congested freeway segments, or will travel on them entirely for shorter commutes.  This congestion on regional routes will continue to have an effect on local traffic conditions. 

 

Tables 2, 3, and 4 show the level-of-service forecasts for the three scenarios.  Table 2 reports the results of the �Existing Plus Entitlements� forecast.  As noted above, this scenario assumes that no additional commercial or industrial development occurs beyond that which has already been entitled (Disney, Warner Bros., and NBC masterplans, Media Studios North, Pinnacle Phase II, Bob Hope, etc.).  The 2025 traffic conditions show that eleven intersections of the thirty major intersections studied would operate at levels-of-service below our current Level of Services (LOS) D standard, with moderate improvements.  �Moderate� improvements are those that can easily be accomplished within existing rights-of-way: minor roadway widenings, parking restrictions during peak traffic periods, traffic signal modifications, modifying lane geometries, etc.