Purpose

The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) has released the Draft 2004 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) for public comment.  Updated every three years, the RTP is intended to serve as a long-range blueprint for transportation investment and development within the six county SCAG Region.  Projects that receive state or federal funds must be consistent with the RTP and must be included in the Regional Transportation Improvement Program when ready for funding.  The Plan covers all transportation modes, including aviation.  This report provides an overview of the Draft RTP, and includes a proposed City comment letter for submittal to SCAG prior to the January 16, 2004 deadline.

Draft 2004 Regional Transportation Plan

As the designated Metropolitan Planning Organization for the six county Region, SCAG is required to update the RTP every three years to provide a transportation plan for at least 20 years into the future.  The RTP must:  (1) reflect the most recent assumptions for population, travel, land use, congestion, vehicle fleet mix, travel speeds, employment and economic activity; (2) be fiscally constrained and revenue assumptions must be available in that they can be expected to be available during the time frame of the plan; and (3) conform to the applicable State Implementation Plans (SIPs) for air quality. 

Severe funding constraints and increasing difficulty in demonstrating conformity with air quality regulations has necessitated that SCAG pursue a more comprehensive approach to this year�s RTP update than had been done in the past.  Rather than to merely assume a continuation of existing growth trends and distributions, SCAG initiated a Growth Visioning program to build a regional consensus of how the region�s projected growth should be accommodated.  From that process, a Growth Vision Alternative was developed to serve as the basis for identifying specific transportation improvements needed to maintain mobility standards. 

According to SCAG, the Growth Vision Alternative combines portions of a �compaction� growth scenario, in which most of the growth occurs through urban in-fill and intensification, and a �dispersion� scenario, where growth is allocated to newly developed areas on the periphery of the Region.  SCAG identified portions of each scenario that performed well in their transportation model, and compared the hybrid scenario against the �constraints of local General Plans at the county and regional level�, and with adopted Growth Visioning Principles, to form the Growth Vision Alternative.  Through a series of 11 public workshops conducted throughout the Region, residents were given an opportunity to create a vision of future growth patterns and principles.  From that input, SCAG concluded that �Southern California will accept future development that features higher densities, in-fill development, mixed-use land, and increased transit usage.�

The Growth Vision Alternative closely mirrors the City�s projections.  The following table compares the projections in SCAG�s Growth Vision Alternative to the local projections that Burbank provided to SCAG.

POPULATION               HOUSEHOLDS               EMPLOYMENT

The RTP forecasts also play a role in determining Burbank�s share of the future growth of the region�the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA).  This RHNA number is determined by SCAG and must be addressed in the City�s mandated Housing Element;  for this reason it is important that the household growth numbers are in keeping with the growth envisioned by the City.  The City is required to show in its housing element (next due for update in 2006) that there are sufficient sites to accommodate its share of the future regional growth.  The Preferred Alternative forecasts are acceptable for this purpose.

The RTP proposes several strategies and programs that SCAG believes will be needed to address the Region�s transportation needs.  System Management includes measures intended to maximize the return and effectiveness of transportation investments; i.e., maintenance and preservation, and operational improvements that increase traffic efficiency and performance.  Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies refer to a variety of measures used to reduce the number of single occupant vehicles.  Car and vanpooling, telecommuting, decreasing discretionary trips and spreading demand to non-peak periods, and the use of non-motorized transportation are typical types of TDM strategies. 

Land-use strategies are intended to implement the tenets of the Growth Vision Alternative, by: 

• Using in-fill development where appropriate to revitalize underutilized sites

• Focusing growth along transit corridors and nodes to utilize available capacity

• Providing housing opportunities near job centers, and job opportunities, and when appropriate, in housing-rich communities

• Providing housing opportunities to match changing demographics

• Ensuring adequate access to open space; changing land use to correspond to the implementation of a decentralized regional aviation strategy and its consequent short-term job creation

• Changing land use to correspond to the implementation of regionally significant major transportation projects and their consequent short- and long-term job creation, and

• Incorporating the local input and feedback on future growth received from the 90 percent of the (188) jurisdictions in the SCAG Region.  �The Growth Vision Alternative respects local input through 2010 with adjustments occurring only after a ramp-up period intended to establish a consensus on an implementation strategy.

The final set of strategies, System Expansion/Capital Investments, includes capacity-enhancing improvements to all modes of the transportation system that are deemed critical to maintaining and improving mobility, accessibility, and air quality.  In addition to highways and arterials, the RTP proposes expansions of the public transit system (bus and rail), the goods movement system, and of aviation facilities and ground access.  �Operation Jump Start�, a component of the system expansion program, is proposed as a means of expediting several strategic transportation projects that SCAG believes are critical to the overall system.  It includes various rail and truck capacity enhancing improvements, as well as a regional monorail system that SCAG calls the �Maglev� (magnetic levitation) program.  Operation Jump Start envisions the utilization of low-cost financing instruments to stimulate private sector involvement. 

As initially envisioned in the 2001 RTP, the Maglev system is an elevated monorail capable of moving people and goods at a very high speed (up to 310 mph) along 275 miles of rail corridors within the Region.  In December 2002, SCAG�s Regional Council approved the deployment of a 56-mile �initial operating segment� that would connect West Los Angeles/LAX via Downtown Union Station to Ontario Airport.  This initial segment and three additional ones that are planned to be operational by 2025 are estimated to cost $17 billion.  SCAG states that the feasibility studies conducted for the four corridors demonstrated that the system could be constructed and operated by a public-private partnership or non-profit entity, financed through tax-exempt bonds and Federal loans repaid through �project-generated revenues.�  This scenario would necessitate that the system operate without a subsidy, and that it ultimately generate a return sufficient to repay the borrowed construction and start-up costs. 

The Maglev system is a vital component of SCAG�s Preferred Aviation Plan, which is a strategy for meeting a projected 120% increase in regional passenger demand in 2030, and a 230% increase in the demand for air cargo services.  The Plan attempts to accommodate the growth by using �available capacity at airfields located in the Inland Empire and north Los Angeles County where projected growth will be best served.�   The 2030 passenger projection for Burbank Airport of 10.7 MAP (million air passengers), and 100% growth in air cargo (87,000 tons), is �moderated� by the distribution of long haul and international service to Ontario and Palmdale, and cargo service being decentralized to other outlying airports as well.  SCAG sees the Maglev system as �critical to the success of the decentralized regional aviation system.�  Without reliable, reasonably priced, and fast service to the outlying airports, the more conveniently located urban airports will continue to generate demand.  

A second component of the Preferred Aviation Plan is the formation of an airport Consortium between all of the airports in the regional system, to �establish a common framework for coordinating all airport master planning and facility construction consistent with an adopted Regional Aviation Plan.�  The RTP envisions Los Angeles World Airports (LAX, Ontario, and Palmdale) developing an �Integrated Metropolitan Airport System Plan� that will detail how its three airports will work with each other and other regional airports in meeting regional aviation demand.  �Agreements between LAWA and non-LAWA airports will be developed to promote further decentralization.  Different roles and market niches for airports will be defined, so as to reduce competition and increase cooperation and coordination between airports.� 

Funding the transportation improvements proposed in the 2004 RTP (not including the Maglev system) requires the generation of an additional $31 billion in revenues during the Plan period.  This amount does not include the costs of improvements and system expansions that have already been committed or programmed in prior years, which will also be implemented during this period.  Federal policies require the use of revenue sources that are �reasonably expected to be available.�  The RTP�s Public Funding Strategy includes:

  1.  Protecting and Strengthening Existing Transportation Revenues.  Amend the State Constitution to remove the provision of the voter-approved Proposition 42 (committing sales tax revenues from gasoline to transportation purposes) that allows the revenues to be diverted to the State�s General Fund if the Governor and Legislature (by a two-thirds vote) agree.  Rectify a shortfall in the State Highway Account caused by lower than expected truck weight fee revenues and gas tax receipts by adjusting the truck weight fee schedule to ensure a stable revenue stream.

2.      Allowing 55 percent Voter Approval for Local Transportation Sales Taxes/Continuing Local Transportation Sales Taxes Where Necessary.   Support current efforts to amend the State Constitution to allow passage by a 55 percent majority instead of the currently required two-thirds majority. 

3.      Issuing Debt Against a Portion of the Previously Recommended Increase in Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax (an additional 5 cents/gal. in 2010 and 1cent annually from 2011 �2015, for a total of 10 cents) to Raise Up-front Revenues to Fund RTP Projects.

4.      San Bernardino County (SBC) Development Mitigation Fee.  SBC is considering the feasibility of a development fee to provide additional funds for arterials and interchanges in that area.  (Related note:  The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority is also currently studying whether a development fee is feasible and should be implemented for LA County.  Potential revenues from this fee are not a part of SCAG�s Public Funding Strategy.)

At the October 28, 2003 presentation of the 2004 RTP to the Council, it was reported that SCAG forecasts that a total of $120.4 billion in public revenues will be available for transportation improvements during the 2002-2030 period.  Of that total, $90.6 billion (75%) was identified as the �Local� component, as opposed to the Federal and State sources which comprise the balance.  In this context, �local funds� refer to the portions of taxes collected within the county on retail sales, including gasoline, that are disbursed to the Cities, the County, and other public agencies, to fund eligible transportation and transit projects.  Burbank uses its Proposition A and C revenues primarily for transit and paratransit operations, its Transportation Development Act (TDA) revenues for transit, bicycle, and pedestrian purposes, and gas tax subventions for street improvements and maintenance.  The RTP includes this Local component of the public funding revenues to provide a complete picture of �public� revenues that will be generated within the SCAG Region by 2030.  The RTP assumes that these revenues will continue to be disbursed to the individual Cities and Counties for local projects that conform to the fund guidelines, and does not propose any diversion of these funds to pay for regional improvements. 

SCAG�s Public Funding Strategy for generating the additional $31 billion needed for the transportation improvements proposed in the 2004 RTP (which is over and above the $115 billion in �previously committed� costs) primarily focuses on: (1) amending the State Constitution to allow the passage of county transportation sales tax measures with a 55 percent voter approval, rather than the two-thirds majority currently required; and (2) increasing the 18-cents per gallon state fuel tax by five-cents in 2010, and by one cent annually from 2011 through 2015, for a total of 10 cents.  The proposal to reduce the voter approval for sales tax measures would theoretically improve the chances that a pending initiative for a short-term (6 years) sales tax measure for LA county transportation projects would be approved, and that other counties would be able to extend their current measures.  The proposed increases in gas tax rates are intended to offset the decline in fuel tax revenues from inflation, fuel efficiency and alternative fuels.  However necessary and justifiable these measures may be, their implementation will require public acceptance of new/increased taxes and legislative actions at the State level.       

Recommendation

Direct staff to submit the attached comment letter on the Draft 2004 RTP to SCAG prior to the January 16, 2004 deadline. 

Attachment

Proposed City comment letter on Draft 2004 RTP

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